Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Struggles With Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves White House without results
The frequently changing meeting is another development in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has warned to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
But the president of Ukraine later commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.